PASHTUN AND PUNJAB: DIVIDED DESTINY
1. The botched-up assassination attempt on PTI Chief Imran Khan seems to be the last straw which has broken the camel’s back on which rode the Pashtun-Punjabi solidarity. While some may call it a failed attempt some conspiracy theorists are even calling it a ‘stage managed’ event. Irrespective of the ways and means the END seems to be the END of Punjab-Pashtun détente. Like every super hero comic, if there was a Batman, there was a Robin, the Pashtuns were the Robin to Punjabi Batman. This modus vivendi allowed Punjab to control and lord over the balance of ethnic groups.
2. However, the grievances had been brewing since Dec 2014, after the APS Peshawar attack and the high-handed punitive actions Pak Army had meted out to the entire KPK province as well as FATA. The PTM (Pashtun Tahafuz Movement) has been fueling a fire of ethnonationalism amongst the Pashtuns which has further been fanned by Taliban’s ambivalent stand on TTP. The large-scale internal displacement of Pashtun population within Pakistan from KPK to Punjab and Sindh has created a diaspora outside KPK which is willing to vector violence in other provinces of Pak as a response to any military action by Pak Army in KPK and/or FATA. Pak Punjab had been net exporter of terror with most anti-India terror groups having their recruitment base and ideological fount in Muridke, Jhang and Bahawalpur has now started to get the taste of its own medicine with terror attacks by Pashtuns in Pak Punjab as retribution to any military action in FATA.
3. This fault line had not permeated into politics so far and the Punjabi politicians were hand in glove with Pashtun but the same has now been exacerbated by Imran Khan for his own selfish interest. The political landscape in Pakistan has undergone a paradigm shift with PTI positioning itself as a Pashtun party while PML(N) is being seen as a Punjabi party and PPP with Bhutto at helm aligning with Sindhi ethnicity. These political fissures are bound polarize the elections whenever they are held and by the sheer virtue of numbers of seats in Pak National Assembly from Punjab (183) vis-à-vis KPK (43+12), PML(N) would tend to gain.
4. This divide would entwine with another Faultline to create a vitriolic cocktail and that is sectarianism in Islam, while PTI and Imran Khan have aligned themselves to the Deobandi-Salafi school, the majority of population in Pak Punjab is Barelvi with Tehreek-e-Labaik Pak (TLP) as the political front of the sect with Saad Rizvi as its ideologue whose video allegedly has been found on the mobile phone of the assailant. This sectarian fracture has wider implications and can target the tenuous fiber of Pakistan society with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pak (TTP) leading the counter response as they are the convergence of Pashtun ethnicity and Salafi sectarian grouping.
5. The custodians of ‘Pakistaniat’; Pak Army has also been at the receiving end of their erstwhile puppet Imran Khan who has spewed venom against the ‘holy cow’ (pun intended) like never before and targeted the outgoing COAS of Pak Army and some key general in his statements. The ‘tamasha’ of this alleged assassination attempt is being attributed to ISI and its vectors, but one thing is for sure if ISI was behind it they wouldn’t have made such a hash of it. If Imran was to be killed he would have been, may be this was just a warning shot below the knees like the forces are taught when asked to quell civil unrest with minimum force. And if it was a warning shot then it has failed miserably as the PTI supporters instead of being cowed down have gone on a rampage targeting the Pak Army with Imran Khan naming Maj Gen Faisal of ISI as main conspirators along with the PM and Interior Minister. The demonstration in front of GOC 11 Corps residence in Peshawar or other military cantonments and the statement by PTI Chief has raised the heckles of the Deep State. Pakistan Army has also responded in equal measure by DGISPR demanding action against PTI Chief for “baseless and irresponsible allegations against the institution and particularly a senior military officer is absolutely unacceptable”. While the outward façade of Pak Army may be unblemished, it is very much possible that the fabric of cohesion in the armed forces may start to fray. Pak Army’s ethnic patch work consists of 55% Punjabis but the next sizeable number is of Pashtuns which comprise 15% of Pak forces. This 15% must also be feeling the domino effect of the duress in the society and may respond intuitively with a backlash against the majority Punjabi hierarchy of Pak Army.
6. A double pincer envelopment of Pak Army from the civilian public and from within the forces would quite rattle the Deep State and create a drastic situation which would force them to take drastic measures. The spectrum of these drastic measures if are internalized and stay on their side of the IB/LC don’t affect the geo-strategic balance in the sub-continent. However, the doom’s day scenario is when Pak Army and Deep State decide to fall back to their time-tested quick fix solution of using ‘HINDUSTAN’ (the word is more meaningful to them than India or Bharat) as the glue which would fix the cracks and fissures and close them. A response in this domain could begin with abrogation of the existing Cease Fire Understanding on LC which has prevailed despite all stressors since Feb 2020 accentuated with a narrative of plausible deniability and victim card, forcing India’s hand to respond. That would set in motion a cascading effect and create a conflagration to the advantage of Pak Army. Once the narrative existential threat to Pakistan is ramped up, all hatchets would be buried, the primacy of Pak Army would be restored and the Generals would breathe easy and return to their merry ways.
7. This trans frontier manifestation of fault-lines in Pakistan is fraught with effects of Sino-Pak collusion and the threat to the CPEC by internal crisis which may lead to China forcing Pak Deep State to respond in the manner stated above. The jury is still out on the effects of this Black Swan event and to crystal ball gaze Pakistan is a perilous endeavor but then better to be forewarned of its worst consequences.
