PAKISTAN DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT : HUBRIS DENTED OF DEEP STATE

While Indian democracy plays out its own macabre version with farmer protests not relenting and flash points of Bengal elections ominously visible on the horizon, our friendly neighborhood due West is engaged in an eleven member dance of democracy which we don’t have much time for; as Indian virtual domain influencers and media are presently holding the intellectual capital of population to ransom with Singhu Border and Ladakh Border quite an interesting caricature of Jai Jawan and Jai Kisan to say the least with both protagonists weathering the cold wave in different circumstances. And then there is of course the omnipresent COVID pandemic and its panacea in Moderna, Pfizer or Serum Institute of India drug which may be or may not be available for vaccination but is surely up for large prime time debates and proverbial ‘chai par charcha’ in each household or gathering not condoned by Sec 144 of the IPC.

Going back to the eleven member dance of democracy in Pakistan which should have caught our eye and its final swan song in Lahore yesterday (13 December 2020) which had tens of thousands of people deifying COVID restrictions and demanding Prime Minister Imran Khan’s ouster and putting the cross wire firmly and squarely on the Deep State for its role in the election of the present dispensation. This was the culmination of the first phase of protests before a planned march on the capital of Islamabad in January to pile pressure on Khan’s government. Shyam Saran in his essay on the issue published on 27 October 2020 in Indian Express titles the “The Ferment Next Door”1 had stated; “We should take a keen interest in the exciting political drama unfolding among “the people next door.” Whichever direction the movement takes, whether it fails or succeeds, its impact will reverberate outside its borders, affecting our region and beyond.”

The question for the uninitiated or for that matter the busy lot; where and how did this come about. So this short piece of mine is to put into perspective the capabilities of PDM as a hubris buster of Deep State or is it just a flash in the pan and like it happens with democracy in Pakistan will be trampled under the boot of the military. In September 2020, the majority of Pakistan’s political spectrum, including 11 political parties came together to form a new multi-party alliance under the banner of Pakistan Democratic Movement. Apart from bringing together PPP and PML-N, the two mainstream rival parties, PDM has also provided the platform to regional parties and leaders from Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The inclusion of regional parties in PDM who have experienced the worst form of repression by the Pakistan military for demanding regional autonomy and respect for human rights is a positive development for Pakistan’s democratic journey. On 20 September, PDM adopted a 26-point resolution with key goals to oust the “selected Prime Minister” and end the Army’s role in politics through a mass movement. After successful rallies in Gujranwala, Karachi, Quetta, PDM announced a 12 point charter for Pakistan, listing goals such as ensuring the supremacy of the Constitution, independence of Parliament, an independent judiciary, distancing military and intelligence agencies from politics, reforms for free and fair elections, emergency economic package, and freedom of expression and media among others. The last rally in Lahore was an endorsement of the 12 points in heartland of Pakistan Punjab or ‘Takht Lahore’. PDM’s political inclusivity by bringing in voices from the periphery has brought a refreshing change in Pakistan’s political culture. It has challenged the credibility of the Imran Khan government as well as the Deep State. Fueled by large crowds and growing public anxiety about economic stress, the movement certainly has developed a momentum of its own; but ousting Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government is a very tall order and would need some heavy weight punching by the key players without falling prey to machinations of the Deep State, fatigue and infighting. Opposition alliances have a historical precedence in Pakistan. They have come together against military dictators, and with varying degrees of success. They helped remove Field Marshal Ayub Khan from the presidency in the late 1960s, but were less successful against Gen. Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq’s presidency in the 1980s. These alliances have also been deployed against civilian leaders, including one against Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1977 that resulted in the military coup that brought Zia to power. Like the PDM today, the Pakistan National Alliance targeted Bhutto administration and accused him of benefiting from election-rigging by support of the the Deep State and of implementing authoritarian measures and damaging economic policies.

Pakistan’s former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, now comfortable in London after receiving medical bail, has delivered fiery video speeches at two different rallies. He has targeted Pakistan COAS, Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa by name, accusing him of engineering the 2018 election victory of the ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. A departure from the established norm of the COAS being a sacred cow (pun intended) and being riled publicly. The PDM may hope that by applying continuous pressure through large, sustained rallies and relentless naming and shaming, it can prompt cabals within the military to turn on Bajwa who has left bitter trail of superseded generals who are miffed at his extension of service upsetting the chain of succession within the Pakistan Army. The military may be shaken by Sharif’s direct attack on Bajwa and by public expressions of contempt for the Army chief. Videos emerged of crowds shouting slogans against him at one of the PDM rallies and in the streets of the city of Lahore; bastion of the Army hierarchy is a significant seismic shift of ground realities. However in a nation where the military helps nurture and sustain political careers, it’s a big risk for mainstream politicians to bite the hand that feeds them. And it’s a particularly big risk for PDM leaders other than Sharif, who can afford to launch a tirade against the kakistocracy firmly ensconced in UK may be aimed to give fillip to his daughter’s political career without attributability to her for his rodomontade. PDM leaders including Sharif have emphasized that their resentment is not against the military but Bajwa the person and thus trying to draw a chasm between the organization and the individual.

The emergence of the radical religious right as participants in the electoral process in the last elections was another counter balance developed by Deep State, rise of the Tehreek Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) and the Milli Muslim League (MML) have raised concerns, the radical religious right’s participation in Pakistan’s political space is dubious at best. The capacity of such parties to mobilize supporters, as seen in the various TLP’s ‘sit in’ during the last 20 odd months, furthers brings up fears of a radicalized Pakistani society controlled by the deep state a proverbial a ‘military-mullah’ nexus. It is important to recognize that the religious right is not all one and the same. Both the Ahle Hadees and Ahle Sunnat belong to the Sunni sect of Islam, but differ over whether Hadees (statements of the Holy Prophet) or Sunnah (the Prophet’s way of life) holds primary importance in understanding the tenets of Islam. Politically, those in support of the Ahle Hadees movement lean more towards an activist, jihad-based practice of Islam, while adherents of the Ahle Sunnat follow a more Sufi-inspired version of non-violence. However, recently, it is the traditionally pliant Ahle Sunnat that has become more militant in orientation. The democratic old guard parties now face competition from the TLP and Ahle Hadees influenced Allahu-Akbar Tehreek (AAT), a competition that is at the heart of the intra-religious divide in Pakistan and may have a domino effect on the PDM as well. These parties are unlikely to forge an alliance due to these divisions and also military patronage. PDM may face a challenge in case the Deep State decides to unleash these parties against PDM and create a divided religious house, stymying any expectations that the PDM will succeed in its terminal aim.

Skyrocketing food prices is a surefire way to galvanize the masses and public approval rates for Khan are in a tail spin. Inflation, income and unemployment reflect increasing anxiety about future economic well-being. This doesn’t mean the PDM will ride on the coattails of public anger about the economy and drive the government out of power. Pakistan has experienced many severe inflationary periods in the past that didn’t lead to mass protests, much less political change. Going after economic misgovernment has given the PDM some serious traction but it must also be acknowledged that the dispensation has not yet cracked down officially or by proxies on PDM. Crackdowns by Imran Khan could slow the movement, but it could also embolden opposition supporters and lead to street protests between religious right and democratic parties. Such unrest would mean all bets are off and it could lead to a military helmed negotiation or a kinetic step in by the Deep State.

Cohesion in such circumstances would be then a challenge to keep the motley crew together. Most of its 11 parties are longtime sparring partners. Presenting a united and sustained front under systemic pressure could prove difficult as time goes on. The opposition alliance wants regime change. But at the end of the day, it would aim realistically of limiting the ruling party’s parliamentary clout and create a wave of dissent in the next elections against PTI and Imran Khan.

1https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/the-ferment-next-door-6887969/ accessed on 13 Dec 2020.